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send out the Newsletter to people who email me - andy@exodus2006.com
Most recent at the top.
Exodus 2006 - NEWSLETTER - No.44 - 28th April 2008
It
has been a long time since the last newsletter. There have been a few
occasions when I almost sent one out. Most recently it was around the
time when Bear Stearns suddenly went down and was sold off cheap to
JP Morgan. There are a several developing situations, that I have been
watching for some time, but few have resolved into any newsworthy events
so far.
I recently saw a spokesman for Lloyds Insurance saying they did well
in 2007; because it was a quiet year with few big disasters. This year,
though, looks like being the year when an economic disaster hits.
So, I thought this would be the time to issue a warning on that, since
the markets are in a "bear market rally" at the moment, and
now would be a really good time to sell if you are holding stocks and
shares. There are some people in the media, who are trying to talk the
market up, by saying we have reached the bottom of the crisis, but we
haven't. I saw the Stearns CEO on Bloomberg, on the Wednesday before,
when the shares were still worth about $70, telling people not to worry
because they had plenty of liquidity and no foreseeable problems, and
then that weekend they sold out to JP Morgan for $2 a share. I bet any
shareholders who hung on after seeing that are feeling cheated.
Serious analysts reckon losses from the sub-prime loans will be $1 trillion,
at least, and posted losses so far are "only" $250 billion.
You can tell it is worse than they are saying because the banks won't
lend to each other - because they know they are probably insolvent and
suspect the others are too.
I saw an insider on Bloomberg explaining that the inter-bank lending
rate in the UK is actually fictional, based on the Bank of England phoning
London banks and asking how much interest they would charge on a loan
to another bank; but in reality the banks won't make those loans.
The problem with this "credit crunch" is that it has several
elements in it that are self-reinforcing. The lack of new loans is pushing
house prices down, which is making some of the bank's assets worth less,
and at the same time causing more people to default on home loans, so
the crisis deepens. Meanwhile, nobody wants to loan money against houses
that are falling in value, so the prices fall faster because nobody
can get loans to buy with.
The economy has relied for years on cheap credit pushing money into
the system, but now we have, instead, the banks desperately trying to
suck in money to cover shrinking asset valuations and to avoid their
figures showing an insolvency. As this goes on there will be less money
around to spend and people will lose their jobs - and this will cause
more loan defaults.
The next big problem we may see is the insolvency of the bond insurers.
The insurance props up the value of AAA bonds, and for years it was
an easy money earner, since they took in the insurance money and never
had to pay any out. Now the bond market is in a bad way, and they have
issued many trillions of dollars in bonds, many held by banks as assets.
At the moment, they can book the bonds at face value, because even though
nobody wants to buy them, they can claim that they are insured. When
the insurers fail there will be big trouble.
The falling dollar is another self-perpetuating problem. The factors
that have started the decline, like the huge deficit spending on every
account in sight, are all still present. Now that the dollar is obviously
in a decline, that is a very good reason not to buy dollars, particularly
since interest rates are also low. Better to sell dollars and buy euros,
since the euro increases in value, and European banks pay more interest
too. The Fed has cut interest rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy
- but it won't because you can't get a loan anyway. The falling dollar
also makes commodities like oil more expensive, and this then increases
the imports bill and pushes up inflation, which will cause it to fall
further. Here is an analysis by Paul Craig Roberts who was Assistant
Secretary to the Treasury under Reagan -
http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts03182008.html
A couple of quotes from that -
Moreover,
the GAO report pointed out that the accrued liabilities of the federal
government "totalled approximately $53 trillion as of September
30, 2007." No funds have been set aside against this mind boggling
liability. Just so the reader understands, $53 trillion is $53,000 billion.
Frustrated by speaking to deaf ears, Walker recently resigned as head
of the Government Accountability Office.
Would you want to hold the debt of a country whose imports exceed its industrial production? According to the latest US statistics as reported in the February 28 issue of Manufacturing and Technology News, in 2007 imports were 14 percent of US GDP and US manufacturing comprised 12% of US GDP. A country whose imports exceed its industrial production cannot close its trade deficit by exporting more.
Read this one too; more about the falling dollar: http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts03142008.html
Another
worrying prospect is hyper-inflation and a Hyperinflationary Depression:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Ruff/ruff_apr212008.html
"Again, the current circumstance will evolve into a hyperinflationary
depression, then a great depression. Although such is not likely much
before 2010, or after 2018, the financial end game for the current
markets will tend to come sooner rather than later and will break
with surprising speed when it hits."
"Although the US, government faces ultimate insolvency, it has
the
same way out taken by most countries faced with bankruptcy. It can
print whatever money it needs to create, in order to meet its
obligations. The effect of such action is a runaway inflation - a
hyperinflation - with a resulting, full debasement of the US
dollar, the world's reserve currency."
"U.S. federal obligations are so huge versus the national GDP that
the country's finances look more like those of a banana republic than
the world's premiere financial power and home to the world's primary
reserve currency, the U.S. dollar."
"By the time hyperinflation kicks in, the economy already should
be
in depression, and the hyperinflation quickly should pull the economy
into a great depression. Uncontained inflation is likely to bring
normal commercial activity to a halt."
"Barter System. With standard currency and electronic payment systems
non-functional, commerce quickly would devolve into black markets for
goods and services and a barter system."
"Gold and silver both are likely to retain real value and would
be
exchangeable for goods and services. Silver would help provide
smaller change for less costly transactions."
Bible Code - http://www.exodus2006.com/Fab2/dollar.htm - "By the lofty Baal; be fruitful! The Dollar will fall. - Desolation of Nod."
The
20th century industrialization was based on cheap oil. Many experts
now believe peak production may have been in 2005. New finds will never
come on stream as fast as the old fields decline. It is widely believed
that many OPEC members, like the Saudis, exaggerated their reserves
for political reasons, and are now doing their best to cover up the
fact that their output is declining. I have seen them doing it this
weekend - any excuse rather than admit that oil production is in a decline.
Meanwhile, oil demand from China and India is rising fast, so there
is an increasing supply and demand effect, and also the price is going
up because it is priced in dollars - which are worth increasingly less.
The rising oil prices will cause inflation, as the effects work through
the system; as happened in the 1970s.
Food prices are rising too, partly due to climate change, disease and
bad harvests, and again because the dollar is used for international
trading. This is now putting about 2 billion people in danger of not
being able to buy enough food, because they only have an income of $2
a day; and there have been riots in several countries.
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/news/2008/04/food_riots.html
- A map of where there have been food riots already.
Iran
- there have been several of my previous newsletters where I was worrying
about an impending attack on Iran. Since then, the intelligence services
made public a report saying that they didn't believe Iran had an active
nuclear weapons program. After that came out, there was less to be heard
about it, from Bush people in the media - but the military build-up
in the area has continued.
Admiral Fallon, who said "not on my watch" about attacking
Iran - was suddenly retired. We also had a video released of Iranian
boats "threatening" the US navy, the sound track had a voice
saying something like "vee aar goink to keel you" - but then
it leaked out that the soundtrack was not recorded at the same time
as the video, and the source of the voice was "unknown". Without
the soundtrack, the video just shows a few small speedboats sailing
past a battleship somewhere out at sea.
In the UK we have just had a similar revelation, from our navy, thanks
to a freedom of information lawsuit.
While we were once told that Iranians had entered Iraqi waters, and
kidnapped British sailors, it now turns out that we had decided where
the border was ourselves, and had never informed Iran where it was.
Not only that, the Navy are totally refusing to give the actual coordinates
of where our sailors were - presumably because they were not actually
on our side of the invisible line in the sea that we never told the
Iranians about. The official cover-story that our sailors were "checking
ships for Iraqi car-smugglers" is one of the most unbelievable
stories that I have ever heard, and I am appalled that the UK media
seemed to accept it without question.
I still think there is a plan to find an excuse to attack Iran before
the election in November. Apparently the new Aegis anti-missile ships
can defend against 6 Russian missiles at once, so the makers claim;
so therefore expect the Iranians to fire 7 missiles at once, and then
after the Aegis ship is sunk they can sink all the others quite easily.
When this all happens, I would expect the oil price to double overnight.
Let's hope this is all too silly, even for the Bush administration,
as some people like to think.
Relations with Putin have become decidedly frosty, due partly to a stupid
plan to put a missile defence system in Poland. Such a system is considered
a first strike weapon, because it allows you to strike first and then
try to defend against the likely retaliation - if it actually works.
In practice, the enemy can make you waste your expensive interceptors
by firing some very cheaply-made dummy scuds, and Russians have supersonic
cruise missiles, which will still get through (and they have sold the
anti-ship version to the Iranians too).
I have been wondering if Putin will nuke Israel if the US nukes Iran;
this is just speculation on my part.
Would you wish to suffer a full-on nuclear attack in order to avenge
Israel? My guess is that Putin thinks you won't, and it would fit in
with some of the Armageddon prophecies. To me, Putin has the "knowing"
look of somebody who thinks he has a clever plan.
The
US elections have been a source of controversy in some of the Yahoo
email groups. A couple of Bible Codes have been found linking Obama
and shooting.
http://www.exodus2006.com/jcash/Obama.htm
- "Shooting of Obama "
http://www.exodus2006.com/Anonymann/suspicion-Obama.htm
- "Suspicion of an Obama assassination is in him, as in them, what
a pity for your wickedness; this is the cult!"
Axum
- I intend to wait until the circumstances convince me that it is time
to go. Otherwise, there is a danger of being deported for overstaying
ones visa, which is probably what would have happened, by now, if I
had gone there in 2006 for no particular reason.
There is also a danger in leaving it too late. Since flying is the only
practical way to get there, it will be necessary to go while air travel
is still possible, which it won't be if there is nuclear war, a complete
financial meltdown, an eruption at Yellowstone, or an asteroid impact.
Frankly, I could do with a miracle, when it comes to money. I have always
been more of a holy man than a business man, living cheaply, and not
owning much more than a Fender Stratocaster guitar and a couple of computers.
I did let my computer repair business run down in 2006, and I have been
lucky to avoid going bust already. Last year I was saved by doing a
couple of house painting jobs, a couple of generous donations from an
American lady with a farm, and a small income from Google Advertising;
which pays about 10 cents for a click on an advert. So, this far, I
have just managed to keep the rent paid and stay on the internet.
Years ago I had hoped I would be able to visit Axum before the final
move. Now I think it will just be a case of grabbing my stuff and heading
for the airport with no pre-arrangements. Could be this year - the way
things are going.
When the time comes, I will send out a newsletter; and change the front
page of the website.
So, keep an eye out for that, if things take a turn for the worse. http://www.exodus2006.com/index.htm
Andy McCracken
Exodus 2006 - NEWSLETTER - No.43 - 10th September 2007
It
has been nearly six months since the last newsletter. There have been
a few occasions when I was tempted to send one out but, at the same
time, have been concerned not to appear to be constantly crying "wolf".
This newsletter is an alert - for this week - particularly the 11th
and the 14th.
This time it is based on items that are in the news - and not on prophecy
and/or Bible codes. The context is important here too, I have spent
a lot of time online in various newsgroups, and reading many articles
that have been posted on websites, and it is difficult to convey all
that in a newsletter. So what I intend to do here, is to get to the
point first, and then I will provide some links that give a feel to
the background; for those who are interested in some further reading.
The story that has concerned me most, just recently, is the one about
the B-52 that flew across the US with 6 armed nuclear missiles - by
"mistake".
http://www.usatoday.com/news/military/2007-09-05-b-52_N.htm
Commentators appear to agree that the procedures are such that it really
isn't possible to load nuclear weapons by mistake. So it looks more
likely that perhaps the mission was ordered outside of the normal chain
of command, and was supposed to remain a secret, but some airforce personnel
blew the whistle on it.
One theory is that the destination airbase is the staging area for an
attack on Iran, and despite the official "no nuke" policy,
Dick Cheney, or somebody, decided to include some nuclear cruise missiles
anyway. Other theories suggest the missiles were to be used against
American targets in a "false flag" attack that would then
be blamed on Iran somehow.
A further report that particularly worried me is this one carried by
MSNBC -
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20628998/
The odd feature in this is that they are saying USAF fighters are being
grounded on the 14th during the review of procedures following this
incident. This is very odd since fighters do not carry nuclear weapons,
and it seems there may be no air defense on the 14th if this is true.
This reminds me of the situation in 2001 when 5 different training drills
were underway on the morning of Sept 11th, resulting in no effective
air cover, which allowed even the Pentagon to be attacked, and nearly
an hour after the WTC was first hit. This makes me wonder if something
is planned to happen on the 14th. I had been wondering if it would be
on 9/11 again, particularly since another Bin Laden video has just been
released.
My advice, therefore, is to avoid large cities this Tuesday and Friday,
if at all possible. The worst-case scenario is that there will be major
terrorist attacks, Bush will declare martial law, and he will then have
unhindered dictatorial powers, Iran will be blamed and bombed, other
countries will be drawn into a widening conflict.
I don't know the exact timing for all this, before the 2008 elections,
maybe starting this week. If this does start to unfold I will consider
it to be the start of the "end times" and I will do my move
to Axum. If martial law is declared, they will probably pull the plug
on the main DNS servers, so that the internet stops working, and if
that happens you can assume I will have moved to Axum, because I will
have no reason to stay in England after that time.
Comments
on the new Bin Laden video
http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2007/9/9/61032/95401
http://qwstnevrythg.blog-city.com/analyzing_bin_ladens_words_and_beard.htm
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/08/world/08hayden.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/dotmil/arkin020199.htm
Warnings
of coming attacks
http://www.newsmax.com/headlines/cia_hayden_warning/2007/09/07/30766.html
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=3336148
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19732730/
http://en.rian.ru/world/20070720/69340886.html
More
on the B-52 story
http://edition.cnn.com/2007/US/09/05/loose.nukes/?iref=mpstoryview
http://tpmcafe.com/blog/coffeehouse/2007/sep/05/staging_nuke_for_iran
http://www.dailypress.com/news/local/hampton/dp-now-langley.0906,0,3833474.story
War
with Iran
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article2369001.ece
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/georgepacker/2007/08/if-there-were-a.html
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=ROB20070621&articleId=6110
http://www.upi.com/International_Security/Emerging_Threats/Analysis/2007/09/05/outside_view_a_sept_rollout_for_iran_war/3651/
http://tvnewslies.org/blog/?p=658
http://kurtnimmo.com/?p=880
Martial
law
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=20070627&articleId=6169
http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=55825
http://www.oregonlive.com/news/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/news/118489654058910.xml&coll=7
http://www.blackagendareport.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=238&Itemid=44
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2005/aug2005/mart-a09_prn.shtml
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article17841.htm
http://www.blacklistednews.com/view.asp?ID=4185
http://www.northcom.mil/News/2007/083007.html
Bush
family history
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_P._Bush
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prescott_Bush
http://www.truthout.org/docs_02/012303A.ma.dead.htm
http://reynoldswriter.blogspot.com/2007/04/prescott-bush-and-golden-age-of-war.html
http://www.blacklistednews.com/view.asp?ID=3878
http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,12271,1312540,00.html
http://www.jfkmurdersolved.com/bush.htm
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4315024059102108031
http://tomflocco.com/fs/FbiMemoPhotoLinkBushJfk.htm
http://www.theforbiddenknowledge.com/hardtruth/bush_killed_jfkjr.htm
The
2001 attacks
http://www.journalof911studies.com/
http://www.stj911.com/
http://www.ae911truth.org/
http://911research.wtc7.net/talks/towers/text/index.html
http://gordonssite.tripod.com/id2.html
http://www.exodus2006.com/9_11.htm
http://www.exodus2006.com/911-aircraft.htm
Video
http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=7866929448192753501
http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=-8129564295534231536
Engineers
and Architects Question the 9/11 Commission Report
http://patriotsquestion911.com/engineers.html
Pilots
and Aviation Professionals Question the 9/11 Commission Report
http://patriotsquestion911.com/pilots.html
Professors
Question the 9/11 Commission Report
http://patriotsquestion911.com/professors.html
Highly
Credible People Question the 9/11 Commission Report
http://www.911blogger.com/node/11094
http://www.911blogger.com/node/11112
Lone
Nut Makes $1 DVDs Available For Those Who Question the 9/11 Commission
Report
http://www.onedollardvdproject.com
This
Wednesday is the first day of the year 2000 in the Ethiopian calendar,
and Thursday is the first day of the year 5768 in the Hebrew calendar.
Andy McCracken
Exodus 2006 - NEWSLETTER - No.42 - 25th March 2007
This
newsletter is an update to the last one. After I sent out the previous
newsletter, I was emailed a link to a French language website, and this
was reporting that a Russian agency is predicting that Iran will be
attacked early April, perhaps on the 6th.
So, I asked Fab to look for Bible codes that included a full date around
then. The 6th of April is the 18th of Nisan 5767, in the Hebrew calendar,
and that is the only date in the month of Nisan that is encoded. The
actual code is typically cryptic, you can see it here, and also the
story about the 6th is linked and translated on this page -
http://www.exodus2006.com/Fab2/6April2007.htm
Who the "bright men of the cult" are, remains to be seen,
as does what they are to be swallowed by.
If the Russians do have reason to believe it is to be on the 6th, they
will have told the Iranians, and this might be a reason why Ahmadinejad
pulled out of a trip to the UN at short notice. Also there is the capture
of the 15 British sailors all happening at around the same time. Possibly
these were special forces, I haven't found the official story very convincing
so far, and it is definitely a sign of something unusual going on.
Another story that caught my eye was this one -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akO7Y_ORw538
- Navy Lacks Plan to Defend Against `Sizzler' Missile - Follow
the link to read the full story.
March 23 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Navy, after nearly six years of warnings
from Pentagon testers, still lacks a plan for defending aircraft carriers
against a supersonic Russian-built missile, according to current and
former officials and Defense Department documents.
The missile, known in the West as the ``Sizzler,'' has been deployed
by China and may be purchased by Iran. Deputy Secretary of Defense Gordon
England has given the Navy until April 29 to explain how it will counter
the missile, according to a Pentagon budget document.
The Defense Department's weapons-testing office judges the threat so
serious that its director, Charles McQueary, warned the Pentagon's chief
weapons-buyer in a memo that he would move to stall production of multibillion-dollar
ship and missile programs until the issue was addressed.
``This is a carrier-destroying weapon,'' said Orville Hanson, who evaluated
weapons systems for 38 years with the Navy. ``That's its purpose.''
The
Iranians are known to already have the Russian "Sunburn" missile
-
http://www.rense.com/general59/theSunburniransawesome.htm
And, in 1987, during the Iran-Iraq war, the USS Stark was nearly cut
in half by a pair of Exocets while on patrol in the Persian Gulf. On
that occasion US Aegis radar picked up the incoming Iraqi fighter (a
French-made Mirage), and tracked its approach to within 50 miles. The
radar also “saw” the Iraqi plane turn about and return to
its base. But radar never detected the pilot launch his weapons. The
sea-skimming Exocets came smoking in under radar and were only sighted
by human eyes moments before they ripped into the Stark, crippling the
ship and killing 37 US sailors.
Not only is the Sunburn much larger and faster, it has far greater range
and a superior guidance system. Those who have witnessed its performance
trials invariably come away stunned. According to one report, when the
Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani visited Moscow in October 2001
he requested a test firing of the Sunburn, which the Russians were only
too happy to arrange. So impressed was Ali Shamkhani that he placed
an initial order for six of the missiles.
The Sunburn can deliver a 200-kiloton nuclear payload, or: a 750-pound
conventional warhead, within a range of 100 miles, more than twice the
range of the Exocet. The Sunburn combines a Mach 2.1 speed (two times
the speed of sound) with a flight pattern that hugs the deck and includes
“violent end maneuvers” to elude enemy defenses. The missile
was specifically designed to defeat the US Aegis radar defense system.
My
advice would be to buy fuel before the 6th, fill your car up in case
there is some panic buying, because the Iranians have said they will
target oil production in countries they consider to be too friendly
with the US. If you have shares in the stock market, I think it would
be safer to sell now, because there could be a big sell-off if anything
happens that might seriously interrupt oil production.
Andy
(This newsletter is also online here http://exodus2006.com/newslet3.htm )
Exodus 2006 - NEWSLETTER - No.41 - 19th March 2007
It
has been a fairly quiet time since the last newsletter in January. The
main topic of concern, since then, has been the build-up for a war with
Iran. New stories on this subject are appearing almost daily, on the
newsgroups and blogs, so my intention here is to give you an overview
and some analysis.
There was a Bible code found, ahead of time, with the date of 23rd May
2006 within it.
http://www.exodus2006.com/fab/23may.htm
The significance of that date seems to be a meeting between Bush and
Olmert. It has been reported since, that at that meeting it was decided
that the Israelis would hit Hezbollah in 2006, and that America would
deal with Iran in 2007. This seems to be the case, with reports since
that Pentagon planners were ordered to prepare an up-to-date strike
plan for an attack on Iran, and that there was a heated policy discussion
on whether to use nuclear bunker-busters against underground facilities.
It is thought that using nukes has been ruled-out of the initial plan,
due to the likely fall-out, but we don't really know that for sure.
Another rumour is that Bush has ordered it to be made ready so that
he can launch an attack within 24 hours. This reminds one of the Israeli
response to the Hezbollah kidnapping. What we don't know, is whether
the plan is to wait, like the Israelis, for a suitable excuse to start
bombing, or whether Bush will just decide to do it, as the commander
in chief who knows best.
You may be thinking, as many are, that it isn't possible to launch a
new war against Iran while the army is so busy in Iraq. However, the
plan seems to be to mainly use air power, delivered by the Air Force
and the Navy, and the Marines have been preparing to play a part too.
It has been fairly widely reported that the Navy are there and are ready,
with 2 carrier strike groups off the coast of Iran now. Less widely
reported, are deployments of marines to bases in the area, and similar
movements of planes to airfields within reach of Iran. All this is consistent
with being ready to strike at 24 hours notice, and I think all is more-or-less
ready now, or soon will be.
There were rumours that it would be in the spring, so any time in the
next couple of months, in that case. The only other thing, I have heard,
that might indicate the timing, is from the Iranians, where some of
the religious authorities predict the return of the Mahdi on March 21st,
an event similar to the "second coming" to Shia Islam. I don't
know if that is at all relevant, but since it is only a few days away,
I thought it was worth mentioning.
The big question, in the event of an
attack on Iran, is what the likely results will be. The intended results
appear to be to disable the Iranian nuclear program, and the Iranian
military generally, and perhaps regime change and privatisation of the
oilfields. This is indicated by the details of the attack plan, which
is not just a quick strike on the nuclear plants, but a 3-week campaign
of bombing. A preliminary target list was leaked onto the internet,
and which included many government, infrastructure, and military targets
- much along the lines of the Israeli bombing of Lebanon, and both the
previous American air campaigns against Iraq.
There seems to be an assumption, generally, that Iran will just sit
there and take it, or whatever they decide to do won't be very effective.
This seems to have been Olmert's line of thinking about Hezbollah, when
at the start he was talking about Hezbollah being quickly degraded,
and that their missiles would soon be knocked out by the airstrikes.
Although the IAF bombed their targets successfully, Hezbollah had dispersed
themselves and hidden all their weapons in olive groves and orchards,
and were not seriously affected.
The Serbs in Kosovo first used these tactics. They didn't withdraw until
ground forces were being sent in, and the NATO estimated were that they
would have had about an 80% attrition rate from the months of bombing,
but the British forces were amazed to see them pulling out largely unscathed.
The way it is done is to construct a suitable number of cheap dummy
targets, and then hide the army under trees, inside small buildings,
or buried under junk. Then only move around in bad weather or at night.
I'm sure Iran learned lessons from Hezbollah's experience and maybe
taught them many of these tactics. Consider also the military advantage
of surprise. Since it is at least 5 years since Iran was labelled as
part of an axis of evil, it has had a long time to prepare, and has
worked hard to develop relations with Russia and China.
Since then Iran has seen what happened to Iraq, right next door, and
they have probably seen the target list on the internet too.
So there will be no element of surprise.
The Iranians have informed neighbouring countries, that have American
bases, that they will be attacked in retaliation. This will be via missiles,
since the Iranians don't have a large airforce, and it was in the press
a couple of months ago that Patriot missile batteries were being dispatched
to provide extra defence to some countries that were likely to be in
range.
See http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/printer-friendly.asp?ARTICLE_ID=54427
'Devastating response' if Iran nukes attacked
Unfortunately the Patriot missiles are largely ineffective against missiles,
although effective against aircraft; according to a report released
a few years after the very good press they got defending Israel from
Iraqi scuds. It seems that despite a morale-boosting display of explosions
in the sky, they rarely caused much damage to the falling scuds. Tests
of newer systems, that I have seen reported so far, don't suggest they
will be an effective defense against most missiles.
The big question is what warheads the Iranians have available for their
largest missiles. The worst case is that they did obtain nuclear weapons
from Ukraine, which is not totally unlikely, since it makes little sense
to manufacture large expensive missiles and to then put a small and
cheap bomb on the top. That wouldn't be an effective weapon system,
you need a large explosion or you can't rely on destroying your target.
I have been wondering for some time whether Iran has been running a
deliberate provocation, with it's nuclear program etc, as an excuse
to unleash a massive retaliation.
See http://www.newswithviews.com/Schwiesow/jim16.htm
- IS THE END UPON US?
Iran has also bought a large number of missiles from Russia and China,
which are designed to be effective against aircraft and ships, and they
may well be. I am old enough to remember the Falklands war, and the
sinking of some modern British warships by Exocet missiles. These were
French built missiles and the Argentineans only had a few of them, but
once launched they flew fast and low and blew a big hole right through
some of our best ships. The Iranians have a Russian missile called Sunburn,
which is bigger, much faster, and can travel much further. So the next
worst case is a turkey shoot of American warships.
Of course, there will be a serious retaliation against the Iranians
if those things happen, so it doesn't seem very rational that they would,
but since the Iranians expect the Mahdi to come any day now, I don't
know that rational thinking is to be expected. There are several Bible
codes saying that Iran will be destroyed, so I won't be surprised if
it is.
Another factor is the attitude of the Russians and Chinese, which might
not be good if they are affected by nuclear fallout from one of their
friends being nuked. Putin has already issued a statement to say he
won't be happy if Iran is attacked. He didn't say what he would do about
it, but I expect there are some Russians employed in looking at various
options. The Chinese are holding a trillion dollars due to the trade
imbalance of recent years. The recent falls in the stock markets are
not unrelated to this situation, and Iran may be a factor in it too.
It is certainly possible, that they may consider it worth taking a loss,
by dumping their dollars into the financial and foreign exchange markets,
if it will bring America down. They are using a lot of Iranian oil and
will not be happy if that is to be stopped.
There is always a chance that none of this will happen, but Bush has
a lot of domestic problems at the moment, and a successful strike on
Iran must be a tempting option at this time. This would be a way to
take things forward; although there is reported to be some opposition
among the military.
See http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article1434540.ece
US generals ‘will quit’ if Bush orders Iran attack
and
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/03/05/070305fa_fact_hersh?printable=true
Still, the Pentagon is continuing intensive planning for a possible
bombing attack on Iran, a process that began last year, at the direction
of the President. In recent months, the former intelligence official
told me, a special planning group has been established in the offices
of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, charged with creating a contingency
bombing plan for Iran that can be implemented, upon orders from the
President, within twenty-four hours.
In the past month, I was told by an Air Force adviser on targeting and
the Pentagon consultant on terrorism, the Iran planning group has been
handed a new assignment: to identify targets in Iran that may be involved
in supplying or aiding militants in Iraq. Previously, the focus had
been on the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities and possible
regime change.
Two carrier strike groups—the Eisenhower and the Stennis—are
now in the Arabian Sea. One plan is for them to be relieved early in
the spring, but there is worry within the military that they may be
ordered to stay in the area after the new carriers arrive, according
to several sources. (Among other concerns, war games have shown that
the carriers could be vulnerable to swarming tactics involving large
numbers of small boats, a technique that the Iranians have practiced
in the past; carriers have limited maneuverability in the narrow Strait
of Hormuz, off Iran’s southern coast.) The former senior intelligence
official said that the current contingency plans allow for an attack
order this spring. He added, however, that senior officers on the Joint
Chiefs were counting on the White House’s not being “foolish
enough to do this in the face of Iraq, and the problems it would give
the Republicans in 2008.”
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/comment/20070311.html 30-day Countdown to War
Personally,
I think this war is likely, and if it does go nuclear I will be heading
off to Axum.
Here are a couple of recent stories about Ethiopia to finish off this
unusually lengthy newsletter -
Over 30,000 Jamaicans coming to Ethiopia for Millennium celebration
http://nazret.com/blog/index.php?title=ethiopia_jamaica_over_30_000_jamaicans_c&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1
Most of Ethiopia is safe to visit, tour firms say
http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/living/travel/16912166.htm
Andy
(This newsletter is also online here http://exodus2006.com/newslet3.htm )
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